Opportunities for Sustainable Aviation Fuels in Brazil
This report, by SAF LATAM silver sponsor AFRY, maps why Brazil could become a post-2030 SAF powerhouse: rising aviation demand, looming global supply gaps, and Brazil’s unique feedstock and renewable power advantages. It compares HEFA, ATJ, BtL and PtL pathways, outlines policy signals from 2027, and highlights real projects, costs, and actions to unlock investment now.
Decarbonising aviation remains one of the toughest challenges in the energy transition. The sector’s reliance on energy-dense fuels and slow adoption of new aircraft technologies means emissions will continue to rise unless decisive action is taken. With global air traffic expected to grow steadily through to 2040, operational efficiencies alone won’t be enough. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will be a critical solution over the next two decades.
Brazil’s air traffic has soared past pre-pandemic levels, setting historic passenger records in 2025, at the same time that advanced its National SAF Program, mandating progressive CO2 reductions from airlines starting in 2027.
Three key stakeholder groups drive demand for SAF globally:
Regulators are introducing binding SAF blending mandates and carbon pricing mechanisms. These create both compliance obligations and financial incentives for adoption.
Airlines face growing scrutiny from investors and the public. To manage reputational and financial risks—including fuel price volatility and carbon costs—many are electing long-term offtake agreements to ensure supply and meet decarbonisation targets
Corporate end-users, especially those with significant emissions from business travel, are under pressure to prove climate progress. Many are choosing to fund additional SAF use to meet ESG benchmarks and stakeholder expectations.
Sustainability standards can vary depending on stakeholder’s objectives, but regulatory frameworks are setting stringent requirements. In the US, incentives are based on lifecycle carbon analysis, allowing a broader range of feedstocks, including first-generation fuels and carbon capture. In contrast, the EU and UK shut the door entirely on food-based feedstocks, favouring waste, residues, and synthetic fuels. These regions also impose high penalties for non-compliance, making them priority markets for SAF deployment.
Current global production of SAF is around 8 million tons per annum (Mt/a), which is currently above SAF demand of 2 Mt/a. However, the gap between supply and need will increase fast. Without substantial investment and rapid scaling, SAF availability will fall short by 2030 and diverge even further from the trajectory required to meet the IATA net-zero aviation goals by 2050.