Scaling Sustainable Aviation Fuel for a Global Future
Maurits van Tol
Chief Executive of Catalyst Technologies
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Johnson Matthey
The global aviation sector is entering a period of unprecedented transformation. Pressure to decarbonise is intensifying as governments impose mandates, airlines commit to net zero targets, and investors scrutinise carbon exposure. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is no longer viewed as a marginal alternative but as one of the central pathways to reduce aviation emissions in the medium term. By 2050, SAF could account for more than half of total aviation fuel demand, making it a major contributor to achieving climate goals in this hard-to-abate sector. Yet the path to scale is uneven across regions, shaped by differences in policy, investment capacity, natural resources, and industrial infrastructure. Understanding these regional dynamics, while recognising the critical success factors that define viable SAF plants, is essential to building a global ecosystem.
Regional Readiness and Strategic Pathways
Europe
Europe is policy-ready and continues to lead from the front. The European Union has adopted ReFuelEU Aviation, one of the most ambitious regulatory frameworks in the world, mandating SAF blending requirements that increase progressively towards mid-century. Carbon pricing and emissions trading schemes reinforce the demand signal, providing long-term confidence for investors.
At the same time, the United Kingdom introduced a SAF mandate in 2025, but which includes a cap on HEFA-based fuels, starting in 2027, which declines to 75 per cent by 2030 and approaches 40 per cent by 2040. This deliberate regulatory pressure is designed to push industry beyond the first generation of feedstocks into advanced technologies.
Project examples across the continent illustrate both the diversity of approaches and the growing momentum. In Spain, Repsol and Aramco are building a power-to-liquids plant in Bilbao, and, in the UK, Willis Sustainable Fuels is developing a biomethane-to-SAF plant in Teesside that will use Johnson Matthey’s syngas expertise. Industry’s role is to ensure compliance with stringent feedstock rules, deliver scalable technology that can plug into legacy infrastructure, and continue driving down costs through efficiency and scale.
North America
North America is investment-ready, combining favourable incentives with abundant resources. The Inflation Reduction Act and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard have created one of the most supportive environments in the world for biofuel production. Generous tax credits lower the cost of capital and encourage early investment, while long-term offtake agreements between airlines and producers reduce commercial risk. These agreements are critical in ensuring that capital-intensive projects can move from planning to execution.
The United States has become home to some of the largest biomass-to-SAF initiatives. DG Fuels, for example, is developing plants in Louisiana and Nebraska, each with capacities of 13,000 barrels per day and expected to begin production from 2028. The scale of these projects reflects the unique combination of policy certainty, feedstock availability from agriculture and waste, and a robust private sector willing to commit to long-term supply. The strategy in North America can focus on accelerating the buildout of world-scale facilities while integrating renewable hydrogen into production pathways. Industry can add value by using efficient syngas and hydrogen technologies to de-risk projects, leveraging ASTM-certified processes, and demonstrating bankability to attract even greater levels of investment.
Asia-Pacific
Asia–Pacific is partnership-ready, with readiness varying significantly across countries. Japan and Singapore have established clear roadmaps and early production hubs, while Australia is emerging as a potential exporter of SAF. Singapore’s position as an aviation hub makes it particularly well placed to drive early adoption. Neste, for example, is already supplying SAF at Changi Airport, through a deal in place with DHL.
Other countries in the region, such as Indonesia and Thailand, are building the policy frameworks required to support large-scale deployment, but demand growth is expected to be significant as aviation continues to expand. The strategic opportunity for Asia-Pacific lies in building regional alliances between governments, airlines, and producers to establish supply hubs that can serve both domestic and export markets. Flexibility is vital, particularly in enabling the use of diverse feedstocks such as agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, and renewable hydrogen. Industry has an opportunity here to deploy technology that can be adapted to different market sizes, to align production with SAF and e-fuel ambitions, and to use the region as a platform for global export.
Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa region is resource ready. The abundance of low-cost renewable energy makes it one of the most cost-advantaged regions for potential SAF production. However, policy frameworks and demand-side commitments are still evolving, meaning that early projects are more likely to focus on export rather than domestic consumption. There is, however, already evidence of strategic positioning, with several governments exploring how SAF can fit into wider energy transition strategies.
The key opportunity for MENA is to establish itself as a global supplier of competitively priced SAF by integrating its renewable energy advantage with advanced fuel production. Industry must work with governments to build supply chains, establish credible offtake agreements, and create integrated hubs that can support SAF production. The potential to build economies of scale is unparalleled, but without early policy signals, there is a risk that this advantage will remain underexploited.
India
India is growth-ready and presents one of the most exciting opportunities of the coming decade. Its aviation market is expanding rapidly and is expected to become the third largest in the world. The government has made clear its intent to integrate biofuels and e-fuels into the national energy transition. Yet the challenge is that large-scale SAF facilities have not yet been built.
India’s strength lies in its abundant biomass, agricultural residues, and renewable energy resources. The strategic path forward involves converting these into scalable SAF projects through partnerships that combine globally relevant technology with local expertise. Airbus has already signalled interest in India’s potential, working with the Indian Institute of Petroleum to validate new production methods. For industry, the task is to provide proven SAF technologies, scale rapidly and demonstrate how India can move from policy ambition to industrial implementation.
The Five Essentials for Next-Generation SAF Plants
Across all regions, five criteria define whether a new SAF facility can succeed:
Feedstock flexibility. Plants can be designed to process multiple types of inputs, including agricultural residues, municipal waste, renewable hydrogen, and captured carbon dioxide. This flexibility helps to avoid feedstock bottlenecks and ensures resilience.
ASTM certification. Without an ASTM approved route to SAF, projects cannot supply qualified aviation fuel, making adoption of certified pathways such as FT an advantage.
Global policy compliance. With varying rules across jurisdictions, plants may need to avoid conflicts with food and feed supply chains, especially if targeting export markets, and to comply with mandates like those in the European Union and United Kingdom.
Ability to produce eSAF. With mandates in Europe and the UK planning to require a proportion of SAF to come from renewable hydrogen and carbon dioxide, facilities can be future-proofed by including capability to integrate these inputs.
Scalability and readiness. The industry does not have the luxury of time. With 2030 blending targets approaching rapidly, technologies that can be deployed at industrial scale today are most relevant. Speed to market, scalability, and competitiveness on cost will determine which projects succeed.
The Road to 2030 and Beyond
Looking ahead, the forecast for SAF is one of rapid growth but also of continuing constraint. By 2030, global production could reach 20 to 30 million tonnes annually, which would still meet only a fraction of projected demand. The 2030s will likely be defined by economies of scale, policy support, and technological innovation. By 2050, SAF could supply between 50 and 65 per cent of aviation’s fuel demand. Achieving this will require not only robust global supply chains but also harmonised certification, standards and trading frameworks to enable cross-border flows of SAF and feedstocks.
The global SAF market is no longer about whether it can scale but about how quickly. Europe provides policy leadership, North America demonstrates investment strength, Asia–Pacific showcases partnership potential, the Middle East and North Africa offer resource abundance, and India represents a rapidly expanding growth market. Together, these regions form an ecosystem that, if connected through collaboration, can deliver the scale and speed required.
Success will rest on building plants that are flexible in feedstock, compliant with global policy, and prepared for the eSAF era, while embracing international partnerships that harmonise standards and reduce costs. SAF is poised to become an important contributor to aviation decarbonisation, but only if governments, industry, and investors act with urgency and collective purpose