Building the business case for Canadian SAF
Jeffrey Buhrel
SAF & CDR Officer
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Airbus in Canada
Canada possesses abundant natural resources, a highly skilled workforce, and deep industrial capabilities. These elements form a strong foundation for the transition from kerosene to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Yet, whenever we discuss establishing a new industry and securing regulatory support, the immediate question always points back to the business case. Relying solely on the environmental benefits of SAF will not secure the capital needed to build commercial-scale facilities. Therefore we can ask: does it make financial sense?
A macroeconomic study to quantify the opportunity
To answer this question, Airbus and ICF recently unveiled a detailed macroeconomic study evaluating how SAF can serve as a primary catalyst for Canada's economic growth. After working for more than a year on this project, our objective was clear: to provide concrete, quantitative insights. To advance advocacy and help policymakers draft effective regulations, the industry must speak the language of economic return and job creation.
The study models exactly what would be possible if we aim to meet 40% of Canada's aviation fuel demand with domestic SAF by 2040:
Adding CAD 32 billion to Canada's cumulative GDP between 2026 and 2040.
Generating 140,000 net job-years across diverse sectors like agriculture, forestry, construction and engineering.
Delivering CAD 19 billion in societal value through avoided carbon costs (as per government methodology).
Achieving a net return on investment of 1.9 to 1, which could increase to 2.5 to 1 if the right policy frameworks are put in place.
Looking at these numbers, the potential impact is massive, though the transition will require significant upfront coordination. Without a supportive policy framework to stimulate domestic production, Canada risks needing to import over 65% of its future SAF demand by 2030. Preserving energy sovereignty requires moving from research to meaningful investment and deployment.
How to catalyse domestic investment
To turn these study findings into action, Airbus recently announced an agreement to establish with Air Canada a jointly funded Sustainability Co-Investment Platform. With a target of up to CAD 13.7 million (US$ 10 million), this initiative aims to support and accelerate domestic SAF projects toward a Final Investment Decision.
In parallel, we signed onto Air Canada's Leave Less Travel Program to address corporate travel emissions, demonstrating how immediate demand signals can be activated today. For the next five years, Airbus will purchase verified SAF environmental attributes equivalent to over 60,000 litres of that fuel. Air Canada will track our employee business travel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and retire the corresponding SAF environmental attributes on our behalf. This partnership is a good example to show how corporate demand can help with scaling up domestic SAF production.
Read more about these announcements here.
A collective effort to drive industry-wide change
Decarbonizing aviation cannot be achieved by any single company acting in isolation. Our close partnership with Air Canada and our ongoing joint advocacy alongside the Canadian Council for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (C-SAF) underline that this is a unified industry effort. By uniting airlines, manufacturers, regional supply chains, and government partners, we are actively shaping the structural mechanisms needed to make domestic SAF commercially viable and price-competitive.
Operating at the intersection of public affairs, strategy and operations, I see firsthand that the groundwork must be laid today. Establishing a multi-year SAF roadmap requires total alignment across government and private sectors. The macroeconomic study gives us the data to prove that decarbonizing aviation is a sound domestic investment. We now have the hard facts needed to advocate for policies that will bridge the gap between environmental goals and financial viability.
Reducing our carbon footprint is not just about meeting environmental targets, it is a catalyst for national prosperity.
You can read the full study here.
More information about Airbus’ commitment to SAF here