Asia Pacific’s SAF Landscape: mandates, pathways, and what’s next
Asia Pacific isn’t one market, it’s a patchwork of mandates, levies, incentives, and feedstock trade dynamics. Together they’re setting the tempo for where SAF gets produced, how it moves, and what pathways scale first.
Singapore: clarity on day one
From 2026, all flights departing Changi must use at least 1% SAF, funded via a fixed multi-year ticket levy; authorities aim to lift the target to 3–5% by 2030, with levy revenues pooled for central procurement. This is demand certainty by design, and a model others are watching.
Australia: production push
Australia has just unveiled a A$1.1 billion, 10-year Cleaner Fuels Program to scale domestic low-carbon liquid fuels, explicitly including SAF. It’s a grant-based package meant to crowd in private capital, with airlines and investors already signalling support.
Japan & Korea: targets take shape
Japan is converging on a 10% SAF share by 2030 for departing flights, a powerful signal if matched with clear compliance mechanics. South Korea’s new roadmap starts with 1% SAF in 2027, rising to 3–5% by 2030, and launches an industry alliance to coordinate scale-up.
China: capacity and carbon markets
China is building industrial muscle and is expanding its national carbon market, with aviation tipped for inclusion, both credible levers for future domestic uptake.
Feedstock trade is shifting
Protectionist moves and biofuel targets are reshaping UCO flows: Indonesia has tightened exports to meet biodiesel goals; Malaysia/China policy tweaks are changing arbitrage routes. For developers, this means stress-testing supply chains and CI outcomes, not just headline prices.
Pathways: what scales where?
HEFA & co-processing can deliver near-term gallons where UCO/tallow and refinery kit exist.
ATJ/FT from residues/MSW fits markets with waste aggregation, midstream access, and reliable utilities.
PtL/e-SAF offers good CI but depends on low-carbon power and CO2 supply; early projects will cluster where electrons and molecules are cheapest and infrastructure is bankable.
Questions APAC buyers and producers are asking now
What combination of mandates/levies/incentives (e.g., Singapore’s levy, Australia’s production grants) creates the most bankable route to FID?
How should we sequence pathways—early HEFA/ co-processing for volume while seeding ATJ/FT/PtL for 2030s scale?
Do we export or prioritize domestic uplift? Export may monetize policy spreads, but domestic use can build industrial ecosystems and energy security.
How tightly should APAC align with CORSIA and other global accounting rules to keep attributes tradable across borders?
Join our expert panel as they tackle these key questions in Singapore this November:
Jeff Caton, Commercial Director – Asia Pacific, Axens
Kavickumar Muruganathan, ESG Policy Director, Microsoft
Rebecca Orme, Managing Director – Asia Pacific, FedEx