Balancing Rapid Aviation Growth with SAF Manufacturing and Policy Innovation in Asia–Pacific
William Moss
CEO
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Apeiron Energy
The Jet Dilemma
The Asia–Pacific aviation market is expanding at breakneck speed. Rising middle classes, booming intra-regional tourism, and surging freight demand all point to more flights, bigger hubs, and rising emissions. Aviation has become the beating heart of regional integration — but it also represents a growing climate challenge.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is emerging as the most practical lever to square the circle. Yet supply is tight, costs remain high, and investors still need stronger policy signals. The question is how to reconcile rapid growth with credible decarbonization — without triggering ticket-price shocks or stalling aviation’s momentum.
“Asia cannot and should not pause aviation growth — but without credible SAF scale-up, the region risks carbon lock-in.”
Manufacturing: From Stopgaps to the Endgame
Near-term: Mature and proven Hydro processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) offer an approach to get early SAF volumes online. But the process which uses waste oils and animal fats, is in the view of many (Apeiron Included) neither scalable, nor sustainable.
Informed industry advocates see HEFA as a bridge, not the destination.
Medium-term: Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) technologies hold more promise. By converting agricultural residues and municipal solid waste (MSW), they align with Asia’s resource profile — especially megacities that already struggle with waste management. Apeiron Energy are key advocates of MSW to SPK, its innovative, scalable, and with a global abundant feedstock.
Long-term: The ambition rests on e-SAF, or power-to-liquid fuels, synthesized from green hydrogen and captured CO₂. This is the gold standard: scalable, low-carbon, and globally fungible. But it hinges on two things: abundant, cheap renewable power, and commoditized hydrogen and CO₂ supply chains. In other words, Asia’s hydrogen economy will decide the region’s SAF destiny.
Policy Innovation: A Region in Motion
Governments are no longer standing still. Five markets illustrate the trend:
Singapore: Mandating 1% SAF on all departing flights by 2026, rising to 3–5% by 2030, with a passenger levy and centralized procurement.
Japan: Targeting up to 10% SAF by 2030, backed by price-gap mechanisms and clearer refinery obligations.
China: Developing industrial-scale projects that could serve both domestic and export demand.
India: Staging a blending pathway starting at 1% in the late 2020s, reaching 5% by 2030.
South Korea: Expected to begin with a 1% blend by 2027, reflecting a “start low, scale steadily” philosophy.
Australia has also entered the frame, publishing Refined Ambitions — roadmap for low-carbon liquid fuels.
Policy Design: Ambition Meets Bankability
Governments face a three-way trade-off:
Environmental credibility.
Economic competitiveness.
Social acceptability.
A workable policy stack can deliver balance:
Soft-start mandates with incremental rises (1% to 10%) to avoid sudden shocks.
Ticket levies to create a pooled fund for SAF purchase guarantees or contracts-for-difference (CfDs).
Producer de-risking tools — CfDs, low-interest loans, accelerated depreciation, and feedstock subsidies.
Flexible compliance mechanisms like book-and-claim, underpinned by mutual recognition of sustainability certifications.
“The real challenge is not ambition — it’s making projects bankable.”
Infrastructure: The Hidden Enabler
SAF must move seamlessly from plant to plane. That requires:
Blending facilities and hydrant system upgrades at major airports.
Intermodal pipelines and QA labs to lower handling costs.
A pan-Asia certificate registry, aligned with CORSIA, to let carriers arbitrage supply and pool demand across borders.
Demand Shaping: Keeping Fares in Check
Unchecked mandates risk ticket-price spikes. Consumers and business cannot and will not accept ticket price shocks. To avoid backlash, governments should pair mandates with:
Corporate and cargo pooled procurement.
Premium SAF options for business travellers.
Caps on levies tied to class of travel and route length.
Transparent disclosure, showing passengers how their contribution funds decarbonization.
Industrial Upside: Beyond Aviation
SAF offers more than climate compliance. MSW-to-fuel (particular reference to PtL) unlocks waste management jobs. Refinery conversions create short-term construction employment. e-SAF catalyses renewables, electrolyser manufacturing, and CO₂ capture.
In short, SAF is not just a decarbonization tool — it is a long-term industrial strategy.
The APAC Roadmap:
Pragmatic, Ambitious, Innovative.
Asia–Pacific could be considered as behind Europe and North America on SAF adoption. But that does not need to be the case. The region has the feedstock base, the demand at considerable scale, and the policy momentum to leapfrog.
The pragmatic path forward is iterative:
Start small, with modest mandates and transparent levies.
Deploy mature technologies like HEFA and co-processing first.
Build registry and logistics systems for regional efficiency.
Invest now in hydrogen and renewables to prepare for e-SAF.
Summary
Asia–Pacific SAF Playbook
Short-term: Existing & Mature Technologies for quick wins.
Medium-term: FT (potentially ATJ) from residues and MSW.
Long-term: e-SAF, dependent on hydrogen & CO₂ scalability.
Policy: Soft start mandates, levies, CfDs, book-and-claim.
Infrastructure: Blending upgrades, regional registry.
Demand shaping: Corporate procurement & levy fairness.
Industrial upside: Waste jobs, refinery retrofits, green hydrogen growth.
Conclusion
Three words define the Pan-Asia SAF approach: Pragmatic. Ambitious. Innovative.
The region’s aviation sector cannot pause growth. But with credible mandates, bankable finance mechanisms, and cooperative regional frameworks, Asia–Pacific can grow and decarbonize simultaneously. Done right, it will not only catch up with the global SAF transition — but lead it.