Rethinking feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuel
As the aviation industry races to meet net zero targets, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) remains the most viable near-term solution. But the sector’s reliance on a narrow set of feedstocks – particularly used cooking oil (UCO) – is creating bottlenecks that threaten scalability. Presented in partnership with Future Energy Global, PA Consulting’s latest report, Out of the Fryer, offers a timely analysis of alternative feedstocks for HEFA-based SAF production, highlighting the trade-offs and opportunities for airlines, producers, energy players, and investors.
The HEFA supply crunch
HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) is the most commercially mature SAF pathway, with standalone production expected to reach 10 million metric tons globally by 2030. In the US, this includes 3.3 billion gallons, bolstered by co-processing in oil refineries.
But the dominant feedstock – UCO – is facing global supply constraints. In 2024, the US imported 2.8 billion pounds of UCO, primarily from China. Domestic production (3.3 billion pounds) falls short of demand (5.7 billion pounds), and new tariffs and incentive changes are likely to exacerbate the shortfall.
This imbalance is driving up prices and creating uncertainty for SAF producers. As the study notes, “To meet the needs of HEFA SAF production, it will be necessary to explore alternative oily feedstocks.” Yet many stakeholders – airlines, corporates, and investors – lack clarity on what constitutes a credible, scalable, and sustainable alternative.
The possible alternatives for HEFA
The report explores the opportunities and challenges relating to four types of feedstocks widely available in the USA: primary oily crops like soybean and canola, oilseed cover crops, animal byproducts, and distillers corn oil. PA’s research goes on to outline three considerations when seeking a credible, scalable and sustainable feedstock:
Low lifecycle GHG emissions
Feedstocks must demonstrate meaningful reductions compared to fossil jet fuel (89g CO₂/MJ). CORSIA and GREET standards assess lifecycle emissions and land-use impacts. Waste and byproduct feedstocks typically score better due to zero or negative land-use change.Avoidance of market conflicts
Feedstocks should not compete with food or animal feed markets. UCO, for example, has been linked to fraud and market distortion. In 2024, the US EPA audited UCO supplies amid concerns over mislabelled virgin oils.Mature and resilient supply chains
Feedstocks with established logistics and supplier networks offer greater reliability and cost efficiency, while immature supply chains can lead to delays, volatility, and scalability challenges.
Feedstock strategy is crucial to SAF strategy
For airlines, energy companies, and investors, the feedstock debate is more than academic. It’s central to SAF strategy. As HEFA reaches its ceiling, the industry must move beyond UCO and embrace a more nuanced, diversified approach.
With knowledge of the feedstock options, producers can build diversified portfolios, balancing sustainability, scalability, and supply chain maturity. Airlines can enhance their understanding of the emissions profiles of feedstocks used in their SAF procurement, especially for international compliance. Energy players can develop feedstock strategies that enable flexibility. And investors can better assess feedstock risk as part of SAF project due diligence.
Explore more in the PA and Future Energy Global report, Out of the Fryer.
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And by Future Energy Global
Future Energy Global (FEG) is a climate-focused financial services company advancing the adoption of sustainable transport fuels, especially Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), by building pioneering book-and-claim market infrastructure. FEG’s demand aggregation and innovative offtake structures enable corporate and airline buyers to finance future SAF production, delivering lower SAF prices for airlines, unlocking capital for producers, and accelerating the decarbonization of aviation.
