Fueling the Future: SAF Investment Opportunities in a Changing Landscape
Kurt Stache
Partner
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SkiesFifty
Even after several decades working in the aviation industry, I’m still passionate about flying. Occasionally, I still take to the skies and fly my own small aircraft. Sitting behind those cockpit controls really brings home how important it is to know where you are going. Flying, like investing, is all about trajectory. You need to know where you are starting from, a clear view of where you are going, and the discipline to correct course when conditions shift.
Right now, the trajectory for sustainable aviation fuel (or SAF) is being questioned in some quarters. Policy in the United States has changed and investors are rightly recalibrating and making sense of the new landscape. At SkiesFifty, our conviction on SAF is not driven by ideology or headlines. It is grounded in structural demand, improving fundamentals, and a clear understanding that every viable path to decarbonizing commercial aviation involves a rapid and sustained scale-up of SAF. While policy in the United States has evolved, the global momentum behind SAF continues — and for thoughtful investors, this moment offers opportunity.
American SAF policy
There has been a significant recalibration of federal green incentives in the United States recently. The rollback of the SAF-specific tax credit premium and adjustments to broader clean energy provisions have been interpreted by some as a retreat. But we still see important pockets of opportunity. What is emerging now is a more focused, arguably more transparent framework for low-carbon fuel investment.
Investors now have greater clarity on eligibility, timelines, and expected credit structures. The federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) continues to underpin baseline demand, while state-level mechanisms such as California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) offer robust, bankable incentives. For developers with well-conceived business models — particularly those targeting near-term final investment decisions (FIDs) — the path to viability remains open.
Equally important are the evolving feedstock dynamics. Restrictions on imported used cooking oil (UCO) are raising the strategic value of domestic lipid feedstocks. U.S.-based SAF producers with access to high-integrity feedstock now occupy a more advantaged position, particularly when layered with carbon intensity premiums and sequestration credits.
Global Momentum
At SkiesFifty, our team of aviation, sustainability, energy, and investment experts is truly international, spanning Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific. It gives us a unique vantage point to evaluate different global projects and perspectives on SAF. And we see that although U.S. incentives have been reduced, the global policy trajectory for SAF continues to gain strength.
The European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation initiative establishes binding mandates — beginning with a 2% SAF blending requirement in 2025 and rising to 70% by 2050[1]. The United Kingdom is pursuing similar measures, backed by a proposed revenue certainty mechanism. In Asia, strategic investment in domestic SAF capacity is underway, supported by industrial policy and export-market positioning.
Beyond mandates, climate-related financial regulation remains a driving force. Institutions such as the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), which includes central banks and supervisors from the EU, Brazil, and China, continue to integrate climate risk into prudential frameworks, regardless of U.S. political shifts. This is creating durable pressure on financial institutions to align capital deployment with decarbonization pathways.
On the ground, this is translating into capital formation. For example, high-quality SAF projects in Spain, Canada, and Southeast Asia are already attracting global equity and offtake commitments. Airlines and fuel buyers are moving now to secure long-term supply.
Structural Demand and Capital Flows
The role of SAF in aviation’s energy transition is a necessity. For the foreseeable future, it is the only drop-in fuel that is both scalable and compatible with existing aircraft and airport infrastructure.
From a regulatory standpoint, the global architecture is tightening. CORSIA, the UN-backed emissions scheme, becomes mandatory in 2027. EU and UK mandates are locked in. And within the United States, corporate buyers and institutional investors are intensifying pressure on airlines to demonstrate credible decarbonization pathways — of which SAF is the most immediate and material.
It is telling that a growing number of major airlines have entered into multi-year offtake agreements for SAF, often at a premium, to secure future supply and meet sustainability targets. This is not simply compliance-driven behavior; it reflects a sober understanding of future constraints — and a recognition that capacity, not just price, will become the primary bottleneck.
From an investment perspective, the SAF market is becoming more differentiated. The days of generic enthusiasm are giving way to more targeted capital deployment — focused on credible projects, advantaged feedstocks, and near-term delivery timelines.
Several areas stand out:
Power-to-Liquid (PtL) projects nearing FID in the U.S. have a unique opportunity to lock in favorable tax treatment before 2027 — gaining long-term cost advantages relative to post-cliff competitors.
Lipid-based SAF plants in the U.S. benefit from feedstock premiums and the ability to stack federal and state credits — especially where co-location and CO₂ capture strategies are integrated.
Projects in policy-forward jurisdictions, such as the EU and Canada, offer investors stable regulatory environments, demand certainty, and increasing access to blended public-private financing.
Equally encouraging is the growing sophistication of offtake agreements. Airlines and large corporate travel buyers are stepping into long-term partnerships, helping de-risk revenue streams and catalyze project finance. These developments mark a critical transition point — from policy-dependent economics to market-anchored investment.
Timing and Scale: The Risk of Hesitation
One point that is often underestimated is the time required to bring a SAF facility online. These are not modular, rapidly deployable assets. A commercial-scale SAF plant can take five to seven years from concept to commissioning. Regulatory approvals, technology validation, feedstock contracting, EPC execution, and long-term offtake structuring all take time. This is not like putting solar panels in a cornfield — it is a project on a different order of magnitude.
The implication is clear: investors waiting for perfect visibility may find themselves arriving too late. Many of the most attractive projects — those with strategic locations,
offtake interest, and early-stage permitting — are already in motion. Hesitation, in this context, can lead to missed opportunities.
The SkiesFifty View: Investment with Purpose and Precision
At SkiesFifty, we don’t believe in magic bullets – there is no single solution to aviation’s net-zero challenge. It will take a combination of new propulsion technologies, operational efficiency, infrastructure transformation — and in the near term, a pragmatic use of carbon removals and offsets. But among these, SAF stands out. It is not just a transitional fuel — it is the foundational element of a decarbonised aviation system. We see SAF as an important component of the next-generation aviation economy — and a compelling opportunity for long-term, globally informed investment.
Our thesis is grounded in three core beliefs:
SAF is inevitable: its role in the decarbonization of flight is not optional, and its long-term demand is secured by regulation and necessity.
Timing matters: the current policy and capital environment favors investors who can move with clarity before key incentive windows close.
Global perspective adds value: by drawing on international insight and partnerships, investors can identify the most resilient projects and most durable business models.
The Path Forward
There is a quiet but powerful shift underway in global aviation — from net-zero ambition to net-zero execution. SAF is a central component to this shift. As the shift is more broadly understood, so too are the opportunities that this represents for investors.
The investment case may look different than it did twelve months ago. But when we take a step back and view the industry through a long-term lens, the fundamental trajectory is clear. Demand for SAF is real and growing, and its strategic value is becoming undeniable.
At SkiesFifty, we believe the opportunity lies in moving early and intelligently. SAF is transitioning from policy-dependent innovation to infrastructure-grade investment. We are seeing credible projects backed by long-term offtake agreements, supported by improving economics and underpinned by growing regulatory certainty.
In that way, SAF has many parallels with other major industrial transformations – digital infrastructure, EV supply chains, natural gas, etc. These sectors began as policy-led transitions and matured into essential systems with real return profiles. The lessons learned are clear. Those who have the vision to invest ahead of the curve, who back the right platforms, and who understand the policy mechanics as well as the market drivers are the ones who will shape the sector and capture its full value.
Kurt Stache is a partner at SkiesFifty – a global investment company with the dual objectives of accelerating aviation's journey towards net-zero emissions while generating attractive returns for its investment partners. These include corporates from aviation, chemicals and other heavy industry, and financial institutions. It is led by a unique mix of senior professionals from the worlds of aviation, sustainability, energy and investing. Its investment strategies focus on sustainable aviation fuel, carbon removals, alternative propulsion, ground operations greening, and materials recycling. www.skiesfifty.com
Prior to joining SkiesFifty, Kurt spent over two decades in senior leadership roles at American Airlines, including Chief Marketing Officer and Senior Vice President of Strategic Alliances. He led global brand, loyalty and customer experience initiatives, and played a key role in negotiating multi-billion-dollar joint ventures with international partners such as British Airways and Japan Airlines.
References:
[1] https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/air/environment/refueleu-aviation_en