Is There an Acceptable Price for SAF?
Ros Johnston
Senior Conference Producer and Content Manager
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Sustainable Aviation Futures
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has moved from the fringes to the center of aviation’s decarbonization strategy, but questions about price remain front and center. For all the technical progress, investment announcements, and policy tailwinds, the reality is that SAF today still costs significantly more than conventional jet fuel. And the industry is far from consensus on what an "acceptable" price really looks like.
Because SAF delivers both energy and climate benefit, pricing it requires reconciling two values: the value of propulsion and the value of avoided emissions. But this is an industry used to evaluating price per gallon, not price per tonne of CO2 reduced. That mismatch leads to challenges.
There’s growing interest in linking SAF pricing to carbon intensity (CI) scores, where lower CI fuels could command a premium based on how much more carbon they abate. In theory, that makes sense. In practice, few buyers, whether airline, carrier, or corporate, can clearly benchmark what a ton of avoided CO2 is worth.
SAFc (SAF certificates) are emerging as a form of carbon inset, but market rules are still being written, and voluntary buyers vary widely in how much they’re actually willing to pay. Furthermore, incentives like the 45Z tax credit, LCFS, and Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations all influence final pricing, but these can change year by year or state by state.
Airlines operate on very small margins and can’t absorb the green premium alone: SAF can cost two to four times more than conventional jet fuel and for many that cost is simply untenable without policy support or corporate buyers sharing the burden. Then, those corporate customers need transparency, consistency, and assurance that they’re not overpaying.
That’s where aggregators, exchanges, and market standardization could play a bigger role, if the industry can agree on pricing principles.
At the SAF North America Congress in Houston (Oct 14–16), a dedicated keynote panel, Is There an Acceptable Price for SAF?, will tackle these questions.
The session will explore:
How SAF is priced today across different contract types and credit schemes
What different buyers are actually willing to pay and why
The role of transparency, price discovery, and platforms for aggregating demand
How regulations, tax credits, and carbon markets are closing the price gap
Whether carbon intensity scoring can become a consistent pricing mechanism
Speakers from AIT Worldwide Logistics, Gevo, FedEx, Phillips 66, and SABA will bring perspectives from across the value chain.
Whether you’re a fuel producer, airline sustainability lead, or carbon market strategist, the future of SAF pricing is being shaped right now. And it's only through open dialogue, creative contracting, and shared risk that we’ll bridge the price gap and unlock the full potential of sustainable aviation.