SAF: Fueling American Jobs and Economic Output
Stefan Unnasch
Managing Director
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Life Cycle Associates
Brian D. Healy
Chief Economist
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Lifecycle Associates
Introduction
As the United States eyes its 2030 target of producing three billion gallons of SAF per year, the national conversation around SAF has shifted towards an economic lens. In fact, the U.S. SAF industry aligns with current federal priorities focused on job creation, domestic manufacturing, and economic growth across multiple sectors of the U.S. economy.
Today, the U.S. SAF industry remains in its early commercial phase, with current domestic production capacity estimated between 20-30 million gallons per year, or roughly 2,000 barrels per day. This remains a fraction of U.S. jet fuel demand, which exceeds 16 billion gallons annually. This article examines the economic impacts of current and future SAF production as the industry is poised for growth.
Scaling Production, Investment, and Employment
U.S. SAF production is still in its early phases, with total U.S. output at less than 0.1% of national jet fuel consumption. Of the numerous pathways that exist for SAF production, the few commercial plants currently in operation are HEFA and alcohol to jet (ATJ) pathways. To scale the industry, more than $44 billion in private and public capital has already been committed to SAF projects, with the Department of Energy (DOE) projecting that this will be sufficient to scale production to three billion gallons per year by 2030, achieving a 10% penetration rate.
This level of capital deployment entails significant employment opportunity within the sector. A single commercial-scale SAF facility, designed to produce around 100 million gallons per year, creates an estimated 1,100 jobs annually during construction. To keep the facility running and operational, between 75-150 full-time operations and management (O&M) jobs are required. This scale puts SAF facilities in line with other renewable fuel producers like renewable diesel and ethanol producers. Positions are skilled, and highly local for construction, chemical processing, engineering, operations, and technical services.
Scaling this to the industry wide goal of three billion gallons, will require building up to 30 new facilities or expanding existing production facilities across the U.S. This rollout would generate an estimated 33,000 construction-phase jobs over the next five years and sustain up to 4,500 permanent direct O&M jobs across the industry once fully operational.
Beyond production facility based jobs, the SAF value chain contributes substantial employment through equipment manufacturing, fabrication, and supporting industries. DOE estimates that each $1 billion invested in SAF projects supports approximately 1,590 direct supply chain jobs. Applying this figure to the full $44 billion in committed investment yields an additional 70,000 supply chain jobs, distributed across industrial hubs nationwide, further amplifying the impactthat the growth of the SAF industry has on U.S. jobs, manufacturing, and overall economic output.
Feedstock, Agriculture, and Rural Job Creation
Beyond production facilities, SAF’s economic footprint extends into American agriculture and logistics. Feedstock sourcing represents a significant share of SAF’s employment impact, particularly for ATJ and Fischer-Tropsch pathways that rely on large volumes of biomass inputs. These pathways drive substantial upstream employment across the agriculture and agribusiness value chains.
A strong proxy for estimating these impacts is drawn from the ethanol industry, which shares similar agricultural and logistical characteristics to ATJ-based SAF. According to that industry, the U.S. ethanol sector supported approximately 264,000 agriculture-related jobs tied to the supply of 5.3 billion bushels of corn, resulting in the production of 15.6 billion gallons of ethanol. This translates to roughly 17,000 agriculture and logistics jobs per 1 billion gallons of fuel produced.
Applying a similar ratio to SAF, suggests that SAF feedstock sourcing could generate between 50,000 and 60,000 direct U.S. jobs by 2030 when production reaches 3 billion gallons per year. This projection is consistent with employment modeling conducted by DOE, which anticipates tens of thousands of new jobs emerging in feedstock production, transport, and pre-processing as SAF scales.
The employment profile differs by pathway. ATJ and FT SAF production will draw heavily from agricultural residues and forest biomass, supporting farming communities, rural transport hubs, and rail logistics networks. In contrast, HEFA production, which relies on fats, oils, and greases, creates fewer upstream jobs but still generates significant employment during facility construction and in specialized collection networks for used cooking oils and animal fats. Because SAF production integrates both agricultural and industrial supply chains, its rural employment impact is widespread, a key metric for cultivating policymaker support.
Growing SAF’s Economic Impact
In addition to driving employment, SAF production contributes substantial economic output and public revenue. Based on the current pipeline of announced projects, $44 billion in capital investment is expected to flow into U.S. SAF facilities, feedstock infrastructure, and equipment manufacturing by 2030. Drawing from comparable industry data, this level of spending should yield approximately $80-$100 billion in cumulative U.S. economic output. Tax revenues generated from this economic activity are equally significant. Using comparable industry benchmarks, the SAF buildout would yield an estimated $12-$18 billion in public revenues by 2030. Importantly, a high proportion of this output will remain domestic, ensuring that SAF investment translates into American jobs and manufacturing growth.
For policymakers, the SAF industry represents a smart, long-term investment in American productivity. The economic case for SAF is clear, the industry is a catalyst for American jobs and economic growth. The build out of SAF infrastructure supports skilled manufacturing, generates billions in tax revenue across a wide geography, and exemplifies American energy dominance.
About Life Cycle Associates
Life Cycle Associates is a trusted partner for clients worldwide, assisting in emissions reduction and environmental impact mitigation. Our expertise lies in life cycle greenhouse gas emission analysis of fuel and energy production pathways, with extensive use of models such as R&D GREET, 40BSAF-GREET, 45ZCF-GREET, CA-GREET4.0 and GTAP.
We offer services that include the modification of the California GREET model, development of initial pathway documents for the LCFS, support for fuel pathways under the LCFS, RFS2, and EU Renewable Energy Directive, as well as determining the applicability of Inflation Reduction Act provisions. A significant portion of our work in biofuels and other alternative fuels concerns the evaluation of new fuel production technologies, their energy balance, and economics.
Please let us know if you have a question or would like further information about Life Cycle Associates’ work and services. You can learn more about our SAF experience on our website: https://www.lifecycleassociates.com/Experience/aviation-fuel-life-cycle-analysis/.