From cacophony to symphony: Scaling sustainable aviation fuel
Almost two decades on from the first commercial flight powered by Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), the aviation industry still faces a stark gap between ambition and usage. Despite widespread recognition of SAF’s potential to cut lifecycle emissions by up to 70 percent, scale-up remains slow, fragmented, and costly.
Now, a new research report from PA Consulting, the global innovation and transformation consultancy, developed in partnership with Sustainable Aviation Futures, explores how the sector can move from isolated efforts to orchestrated progress. At its heart, the report finds that SAF isn’t simply a technology problem, or an innovation issue – it’s a systems problem.
The promise, the problem
From research of close to 600 leaders from across the aviation and energy ecosystem – airlines, airports, producers, investors, policymakers and regulators, and more – we found that the industry is united in its belief in SAF. Over 80 percent of stakeholders feel responsible for making significant SAF progress by 2030, and many see it as a driver of job creation and energy security.
Yet confidence in its widespread adoption remains low. The primary barrier? Cost. SAF is projected to be 115 percent more expensive than conventional jet fuel by 2030, with producers and airlines diverging on future price expectations – all of which creates market tension.
Three actions to accelerate progress
Based on insight and interviews from leading practitioners, the report outlines three key actions to unlock SAF’s potential:
Create the conditions for success
Our research underscores the pressing need for proactive market stimulation to temper costs and build market confidence. Respondents from the investor community told us they favoured the policy approach taken by the UK, which has the proposed Revenue Certainty Mechanism. Our report also explores how better alignment between government policy and industry reality, and the right balance between incentivisation and accountability, can de-risk investment and stimulate the market.
Align the ecosystem around the cost mission
In one of the most cost-sensitive consumer markets, the success of SAF hinges on its ability to compete with conventional jet fuel on price. With a complex and evolving supply chain, success depends on aligning incentives and sharing risk with new procurement models and creative offtake agreements to reduce costs and increase offtake certainty.
Act now, adapt as you scale
In a brittle and competitive market, aviation and energy organisations need to demonstrate they are part of a regenerative future – actively taking steps to improve the world, while retaining the flexibility to adapt to future shifts. Our report explores how ‘soft strategies’ – informed by readiness assessments and data-led insight – can help organisations evolve with policy and market changes, and provides examples of successful strategies.
Looking ahead
The report offers practical provocations for leaders across each major stakeholder group – airlines, airports, producers, investors, and policymakers – to help them lead with clarity, collaborate with purpose, and scale with speed.
To succeed, the industry must move from a cacophony of individual efforts to a symphony of coordinated action. As one interviewee told us: “If we don’t act today, there won’t be a tomorrow.”
And with global SAF demand projected to rise from 1Mt in 2024 to over 400Mt by 2050, the time to act is now.