The SAF Supply Chain Puzzle: From Feedstocks to Fuels — Building a Resilient Global Network
William Moss
CEO
Apeiron Energy
As aviation races toward net-zero emissions by 2050, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) stands out as its most viable decarbonization lever. SAF will cut lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel, yet today it makes up less than 0.2% of global consumption.
The core SAF challenge is scalability; moving from thousands to millions of tonnes per year. That requires not just technological breakthroughs but a robust, interconnected global supply chain capable of handling diverse feedstocks, conversion technologies, remote points of use, and new distribution systems.
The task is not only to produce SAF, but to build a resilient network linking feedstock suppliers, processors, refiners, logistics, and airlines in a synchronized global ecosystem.
This is what we refer to as the SAF supply chain puzzle! Its complex, fragmented, but central to the industry’s sustainable future.
Key Foundations.
Feedstocks are, and will always be the starting point of the SAF value chain. Without a consistent raw material, conversion into jet fuel will struggle to meet global standards.
Feedstocks fall into three broad categories:
Biogenic feedstocks: used cooking oil, animal fats, and certain energy crops.
Non-biogenic feedstocks: municipal solid waste (MSW), off-gases, and captured CO₂ combined with H₂.
Synthetic feedstocks: e-fuels from renewable electricity, water, and CO₂.
Each offers benefits and challenges. Waste oils are simple to process but limited and geographically scattered. Energy crops offer a perception of volume (USA) but raise land-use and carbon-intensity concerns. Synthetic fuels promise near-limitless potential but remain costly and energy intensive.
A diverse, regionally specialized feedstock mix is essential. No one wants “sustainable” aviation fuel that isn’t genuinely sustainable or affordable.
Pathways.
Feedstocks are refined into jet fuel through various conversion technologies, each with distinct maturity and scalability capabilities.
HEFA dominates current production, converting waste oils and fats into fuel. It’s mature but limited by feedstock availability.
Fischer–Tropsch (FT) and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) processes handle a broader range of inputs, including biomass and waste, but require heavy capital investment.
Power-to-Liquid (PtL) technologies synthesize fuels from renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and captured CO₂, offering near-zero-carbon potential — yet remain energy-intensive and expensive.
No single pathway can meet global demand. Each depends on reliable feedstock flows, hydrogen supply, and carbon capture integration. HEFA plants, for instance, compete for scarce waste oils, while PtL facilities must be co-located with renewable power and CO₂ sources. This diversity calls for localized industrial ecosystems — regional clusters integrating feedstock, renewable energy, and refining capacity.
The sector is responding with co-location strategies: SAF refineries in the UK, EU and APAC regions. Emerging e-fuel hubs in such as Chile and Norway. These clusters reduce transport costs, enable circular economies, and enhance energy security — essential ingredients of supply chain resilience.
Bottlenecks.
Even as production expands, distribution remains a logistical bottleneck. SAF must be blended, stored, transported, and delivered through systems originally built for fossil fuels. Many refineries and airports, especially outside Europe and North America, lack the necessary blending and storage infrastructure. Moving fuel long distances will undermine its carbon benefits.
Three solutions are gaining traction:
Book-and-Claim Systems — producers deliver SAF into the nearest terminal while airlines claim the environmental credit via certificates.
Regional Blending Hubs — centralized terminals near airports or refining clusters improve economies of scale.
Digital Traceability Platforms — blockchain and ledger systems track SAF molecules, ensuring transparency and compliance.
These innovations are gradually transforming a fragmented logistics chain into a digitally connected SAF marketplace, enabling efficient trading and carbon accounting across regions.
The Glue.
The SAF supply chain is as much economic as it is physical. Currently, SAF costs two to five times more than fossil jet fuel. Without supportive (government level) policies, producers struggle to secure investable offtake agreements. Momentum however is building.
Global mandates equate to an average of 6% SAF by 2030 and 70% by 2050. The UK & EU are leading the way with clear SAF mandates. Japan has a SAF Roadmap, and emerging APAC regions follow similar paths. Policies create predictable demand signals, enabling investors to back large projects and airlines to hedge supply and price risks.
Policy fragmentation remains a threat. Varying definitions of “sustainable” feedstocks and inconsistent carbon accounting can distort markets. A harmonized global policy framework — underpinned by transparent lifecycle analysis — is essential to unlock cross-border trade and investment confidence.
Resilience.
Resilience is more than redundancy; it’s about adaptability, and the ability to absorb shocks from feedstock shortages, regulatory shifts, or geopolitical disruptions. Achieving resilience requires shifting from linear supply chains to networked ecosystems built on collaboration:
Airlines act as anchor customers, committing long-term demand.
Energy companies bring refining expertise and capital.
Agricultural and waste sectors provide traceable, low-carbon feedstocks.
Technology providers and startups enhance conversion efficiency.
Governments and financial institutions harmonize standards, fund infrastructure, and de-risk investments.
Public-private initiatives like the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition are already fostering cross-sector cooperation, aiming to scale SAF production to 10% of global jet fuel use by 2030.
The Road Ahead.
Solving the SAF puzzle requires a systems approach that integrates technology, finance, logistics, and policy into a unified global framework.
Future success will depend on:
Standardized sustainability metrics to enable transparent trade.
Modular, flexible refining capacity adaptable to multiple feedstocks.
Digital platforms for real-time carbon tracking and market coordination.
Regional circular ecosystems converting local waste into global climate solutions.
As the industry transitions from pilot projects to large-scale operations, the question is no longer whether SAF can power aviation — but whether we can build the resilient, equitable, and efficient supply network required to make it viable at scale.
What Next.
The journey from feedstocks to fuels is more than a technical challenge; it’s a transformation of an global energy system. The aviation sector’s climate ambitions depend not only on innovation in complex chemistry and engineering, but also in orchestrating a complex, interconnected network spanning continents, refiners, and end-users.
Cracking the SAF supply chain puzzle will redefine how the world produces, moves, and manages energy. This key challenge that will test the commitment of governments, investors, and engineers alike.
If achieved, it won’t just decarbonize aviation; it will reshape how we think about sustainability, resilience, and collaboration in the 21st-century energy economy.