To have enough SAF in 2050, we must lay the groundwork now
Bruno James
Head of Business Development with SAF & CDR Producers
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Airbus
Reaching the aviation industry’s long-term goal of ‘net-zero carbon emissions by 2050’ will be a test of endurance, where we need to put the work in early and then keep up the momentum to have a chance at success down the line. The SAF transition will be defined by technologies that are yet to reach commercial maturity, but require investment and support today and in the decades to come to pick up the slack when current production methods can no longer meet the quantities needed.
The Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway accounts for over 90% of current and near-term sustainable aviation fuel[1] (SAF) production capacity. Its early lead is thanks in part to its technical maturity, and synergies with existing biofuel infrastructure. But as the market scales, the need to diversify feedstocks and technologies becomes more pressing. According to the 2026 SAF Market Outlook from SkyNRG and ICF, a ‘HEFA tipping point’ is expected around 2030, when demand growth will overtake the amount of SAF that can be produced using feedstocks derived from fats and oils.
There are further pressures on the HEFA pathway as a result of geopolitical factors. As domestic mandates mature, there is a shift towards retaining waste oils for fuel production rather than exporting them. These moves further tighten supply and push up feedstock prices for countries that rely on importing feedstocks for their SAF production.
Taking into account these evolving challenges, the SAF industry must invest in developing alternative pathways. Airbus considers that all SAF technologies will have a role to play in getting us to 2050, but at this point in time we note that Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) is emerging as a scalable and cost-competitive alternative. But this technological pathway needs to develop now and in the coming years in order to reach commercial maturity when we need it.
So why do we see AtJ as a contender? One of its main advantages is that it can be produced from a number of different types of feedstock. AtJ can take advantage of lignocellulosic biomass feedstock such as forestry residues and agricultural wastes. These are unsuitable for HEFA but can be used to produce SAF via the AtJ pathway. Another potential feedstock is starch and sugar crop residues, although the use of these must be carefully managed and fully aligned to regulations such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive (EU RED) or the UK’s Renewable Transport Fuel Obligations (RTFO) to ensure they do not compete with food production.
But despite this flexibility, the path ahead for AtJ isn’t necessarily a straightforward one. Unlike HEFA, AtJ does not benefit from the use of legacy refinery assets, and therefore it needs more support to reach market viability. This is where Airbus believes it can play a role as a catalyst. We sit at the crossroads between fuel supply (ensuring technical compatibility with the airframe) and the end-user (safeguarding the long-term economic model of the airlines). In recent years, Airbus has brought together technical expertise with financial backing to make investments in AtJ projects across different regions. These include:
In 2023, we invested in a biofuel production facility being developed by Jet Zero Australia, alongside the Qantas Group and Queensland Government, and in partnership with LanzaJet.
We made an investment in LanzaJet in 2024, to help the company further expand its capability and capacity to scale its proprietary AtJ process technology.
In 2026, we entered into a joint venture alongside Technip Energies, Safran and Tereos to develop a large-scale SAF production project at the Port of Dunkirk, France, which will be one of the largest facilities of its kind in Europe.
No single pathway or producer can scale SAF to the production volumes needed to support the aviation industry in 2050 and beyond. This is why the entire SAF ecosystem needs to unite in support of alternative pathways to ensure that the transition from HEFA to other technologies happens as smoothly as possible. By maintaining support, investment and advocacy, we stand the best chance of a seamless transition as different production methods step forward or back in terms of volumes and viability.
It’s a test of endurance, not a sprint