Can North America Turn eSAF Potential into Commercial Scale?
North America has the renewable resources, industrial infrastructure and technology developers to become a major producer of electrofuels. As the first U.S. commercial facilities begin operating, however, the market’s next phase will be determined less by technical potential than by electricity strategy, policy durability, credible carbon accounting and the ability to convert early demand into financeable long-term contracts.
For several years, efuels have occupied an unusual position within the sustainable aviation fuel conversation: widely regarded as essential to aviation’s long-term decarbonisation, but frequently treated as a technology for the 2030s rather than a meaningful part of today’s market, but now distinction is beginning to weaken.
In June 2026, Twelve opened AirPlant One in Moses Lake, Washington, describing it as the first commercial-scale U.S. facility producing its E-Jet power-to-liquid fuel from carbon dioxide, water and renewable electricity. In Texas, Infinium’s Project Roadrunner is expected to open next year, and will produce 23,000 tonnes of eSAF and other electrofuel products each year.
These volumes remain small beside total North American jet fuel demand. Nevertheless, the projects represent an important transition. The discussion is no longer only about whether eSAF can be produced. It is moving towards whether first-of-a-kind projects can operate reliably, satisfy multiple certification systems, secure repeatable financing and establish a commercial model that can be replicated at substantially greater scale.
The U.S. has moved beyond a purely experimental market
North America now contains several different models for developing synthetic fuels.
Twelve’s AirPlant One provides an early commercial demonstration of directly electrified fuel production. The company converts captured CO₂ using its electrochemical technology before producing E-Jet and e-naphtha. Twelve has also secured airline and investor participation, including agreements involving IAG, Alaska Airlines, Microsoft and United Airlines Ventures.
Infinium has taken a more integrated infrastructure-development approach. Project Pathfinder in Corpus Christi began shipping commercial quantities of electrofuels in 2023. Project Roadrunner, now under construction near Pecos, combines purpose-built renewable generation, a large hydrogen production system, captured waste CO₂, multiple product markets and contracted customers including American Airlines and IAG.
AIRCO, formerly Air Company, is pursuing a modular carbon-conversion model. Its integrated AIRMADE demonstration plant began operating in Brooklyn in 2025, bringing together the company’s CO₂-to-syngas and fuel-production stages as preparation for commercial licensing and deployment. The company reports more than 1,500 continuous operating hours for its demonstration pathway and has worked with airlines and U.S. defence programmes on fuel testing.
Meanwhile, HIF Global’s proposed Matagorda development in Texas illustrates the potential convergence between aviation, shipping and other synthetic-fuel markets. The project is designed primarily around large-scale e-methanol production, with the potential for that product to be further converted into eSAF and other fuels. HIF has obtained a California Low Carbon Fuel Standard design pathway covering eSAF, e-diesel and e-naphtha, although the project still faces the substantial financing, electricity and construction requirements associated with a multibillion-dollar development.
Together, these projects reveal an emerging but diverse sector. Some developers are building complete fuel-production facilities. Others intend to license conversion technology, aggregate hydrogen and CO₂ infrastructure, produce intermediate molecules such as e-methanol, or sell several products from the same plant to improve overall economics.
There is unlikely to be one universally successful eSAF model. Project structure will depend on regional electricity markets, available carbon sources, infrastructure, policy incentives and the willingness of different buyers to pay for low-carbon products.
State policy is becoming part of the location decision
Federal incentives are only one part of the U.S. value stack.
Washington has expanded its Clean Fuel Standard treatment of alternative aviation fuels, providing a potential market for low-carbon fuel credits alongside the state’s renewable electricity and aviation ecosystem. This policy environment helped make Washington an attractive location for Twelve’s first commercial facility.
Minnesota offers a refundable credit of $1.50 per gallon for qualifying SAF produced or blended in the state and used on flights departing from Minnesota. Changes enacted in 2026 expanded the definition to include fuel derived from gaseous carbon oxides and introduced additional value for carbon-intensity reductions beyond the minimum threshold—changes that make the mechanism more relevant to eSAF and other advanced pathways.
California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard offers another route to value for approved low-carbon fuel pathways, although eligibility, credit generation and interaction with aviation markets require careful analysis. HIF’s approval of a design-based pathway demonstrates that synthetic fuels can enter this framework, but it does not remove the need for project-specific verification and operating data.
This emerging patchwork means that the best renewable resource will not always determine the best project location. Developers will increasingly compare combined federal and state incentives, power-market rules, local permitting, CO₂ availability, airport and pipeline access, workforce capacity, tax treatment and proximity to export infrastructure.
Why European demand is supporting American projects
The U.S. has a national ambition to produce three billion gallons of SAF annually by 2030 and enough SAF to satisfy projected domestic aviation demand by 2050. Its current market architecture, however, remains principally incentive-led rather than supported by a nationwide eSAF obligation.
Europe and the UK have taken a different approach.
ReFuelEU Aviation requires synthetic aviation fuels to represent 1.2% of fuel supplied at EU airports from 2030, increasing substantially thereafter. The UK will introduce a dedicated power-to-liquid obligation of 0.2% of total jet fuel demand in 2028, rising to 3.5% by 2040.
Those obligations are already affecting North American contracting. A portion of Project Roadrunner’s production is intended for IAG and export to the UK, while Twelve’s agreement with IAG links U.S. production with demand from European airlines.
North America could consequently become both a domestic eSAF market and an export platform. Its renewable resources, engineering expertise, existing energy infrastructure and access to capital may allow U.S. projects to serve jurisdictions where mandatory demand is developing faster than local supply.
That opportunity also introduces risk. Export-focused projects must prove that their electricity, hydrogen, carbon source, production pathway and chain of custody satisfy the destination market’s rules. A gallon qualifying for one U.S. incentive or voluntary certificate programme may not automatically carry equivalent compliance value under UK, EU or CORSIA methodologies.
The most valuable eSAF projects may therefore be those designed for regulatory interoperability from the outset.
The real constraint is bankability
The fundamental challenge facing eSAF is not a shortage of potential buyers. Airlines, freight customers and corporations want access to high-integrity fuels capable of providing significant lifecycle reductions.
The difficulty lies in converting that interest into contracts that support project finance.
World Economic Forum analysis identifies long-term offtake, strategic equity, guarantees, insurance, infrastructure investment, book-and-claim systems and other blended-finance tools as important mechanisms for mobilising SAF capital. Its research estimates that between $19 billion and $45 billion of investment in SAF production could be required globally by 2030.
For eSAF, the commercial structure is particularly demanding. A bankable project may need aligned agreements covering:
Renewable electricity supply and associated environmental attributes
Hydrogen production, storage and delivery
A long-term source of qualifying carbon dioxide
Technology performance and process-integration guarantees
Construction cost and completion risk
Jet fuel and co-product sales
Federal and state incentive ownership
SAF certificates and emissions claims
Certification under multiple lifecycle methodologies
Price escalation, policy change and volume flexibility
A conventional airline offtake agreement may not be enough to address all these risks.
Corporate buyers can help widen the revenue base. The Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance has aggregated demand from companies purchasing the environmental attributes of SAF and launched a next-generation procurement intended to provide five- to ten-year forward commitments capable of helping an advanced SAF project reach final investment decision. In 2026, Infinium’s Project Atlas was selected through that process.
This model may be particularly important for eSAF because corporate customers are often interested in the size and integrity of the emissions reduction rather than only the physical fuel price. A well-governed SAF certificate transaction can connect those buyers with production even where physical delivery to the buyer’s preferred airport is impractical.
But certificates cannot compensate for weak underlying production. Claims must remain linked to verified fuel, robust lifecycle data, clear ownership of environmental attributes and safeguards against double counting.
Canada has resources, but not yet a market of comparable strength
Canada possesses several ingredients that could eventually support significant eSAF production: low-carbon hydroelectric and nuclear generation, strong wind resources, industrial and biogenic CO₂, established aviation demand and access to both Atlantic and Pacific export markets.
Its commercial market remains less developed.
Transport Canada’s July 2026 Sustainable Aviation Fuels – Blueprint for Canada states that, as of 2025, Canada had no sustained commercial SAF production. Announced Canadian projects represented more than one billion litres of potential annual capacity, but none had reached final investment decision at the time assessed. The report considers significant domestic power-to-liquid volumes unlikely before 2030, with a more substantial role possible in the 2040s as technology matures and low-carbon electricity expands.
British Columbia is currently the notable exception in demand policy, with a renewable-content requirement for jet fuel beginning at 1% in 2028. Elsewhere, Canada lacks a broad aviation fuel obligation comparable to the UK or EU frameworks.
Canada’s opportunity may therefore be to develop regional hubs combining low-carbon power, hydrogen, captured carbon, refining capability and export logistics, while creating sufficient domestic demand to prevent Canadian electricity and feedstocks from supporting production elsewhere instead.
Without durable market signals, its natural advantages may not translate into final investment decisions.
The next two years will determine the shape of the industry
eSAF will not replace bio-based SAF in the immediate market. HEFA, alcohol-to-jet, gasification and other pathways will all be required to build meaningful North American supply. Nevertheless, efuels are becoming strategically important now, not only because of their long-term production potential, but because the projects that could supply the early 2030s must reach key development, contracting and construction milestones much sooner.
The most important questions are becoming practical:
Can eSAF developers secure qualifying electricity without undermining plant utilisation?
Which carbon sources will retain value across U.S., CORSIA, UK and European methodologies?
Can projects begin hydrogen construction in time to preserve 45V eligibility?
How should 45Z, 45V, state credits, compliance certificates and voluntary environmental attributes be allocated among producers, hydrogen suppliers, airlines and corporate buyers?
Will North American airlines support sufficient domestic demand, or will mandatory European markets continue to secure the earliest volumes?
And can technology providers, EPCs, investors and insurers develop repeatable structures for managing integration and performance risk?
North America has demonstrated that it can produce aviation fuel from electricity and captured carbon. Its next challenge is to show that these facilities can become a replicable asset class rather than a collection of exceptional first-of-a-kind projects.
These questions will be central to the discussions at SAF North America 2026 in Houston, bringing together fuel producers, airlines, technology providers, hydrogen and carbon specialists, policymakers, investors, EPCs and corporate buyers to examine how the next generation of North American SAF projects can move from announcement to operation.